John's come good! [vtr.aec.gov.au]

Well it looks like the Liberals are home and hosed in stronger positions in both houses compared to last election.

Far from the mandate for change that Labor/Latham were asking for, the Liberals are actually UP 1.8% on a two party preferred basis.

Pretty much no-one was forecasting this outcome. Victory to the Liberals by a slimmer margin was the accepted reality. So what happened?

Labor's Bob McMullen tells us that he is "fearful for the future" and "disappointed". Perhaps he, as Costello has been saying of the Labor Party, doesn't trust the public to make sensible decisions.

Nick Minchin said he thinks that most Australians were smart enough to know that Labor's promises were "too good to be true".

Looking at who contested what seats and the relevant seats, I have my own theory. Obviously one part is that people are pretty happy with the record of the Liberal/Howard/Costello combination, so I wasn't expecting dramatic swings. But nearly every contesting candidate has a swing towards them.

So where did all the votes come from? Mostly, it seems, have come from the implosion of the Democrats in every seat (including a number they have failed to contest). Some (but definately less) from the drop in support for One Nation (but not as across the board as the Democrats drop). To my eye there also seem to be less independants contesting than last time, but I haven't seen stats supporting that.

The Greens haven't garnered as much support as I feared, and the support for Family First is quite pleasing. Alan Cadman securing Mitchell against no less than 8 opponents yet again is no surprise. Louise Markus taking Greenway from Labour is a good win. Ross Cameron seems to have sadly met his fate in Paramatta (although the postal votes remain to be seen in this ultra-marginal seat).

All in all a far more interesting election that expected.

The senate count is less advanced, but things look good for the Liberals there as well which will hopefully leave our country less at the mercy of Greens or Democrats.

Is it time for bed yet?